A collection of resources to help track and understand the Indian COVID-19 epidemic, focussed on demographic data, seroprevalence and mortality.

India

Basic demographic estimates:
2019, 2020, 2021 population: 1332900, 1347121, 1361343 × 10³ (MoHFW (p160ff))
Yearly population growth: 1.06%
2018/19 crude death rate: 6.2, 6 (SRS 2018 (Table 1), SRS 2019 (Table 8))
CRS-SRS level of death registration (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019): 75.3%, 76.8%, 78.3%, 84.6%, 92% (CRS 2019, Statement 21)
NFHS-5 level of death registration: 70.8% (NFHS-5 national report, Table 2.19)
NFHS-5: full report

Mortality data :
Civil registration data monthly data from various sources for various states and cities
Civil registration data monthly data from various sources for various states and cities

Articles on mortality:
The Lancet (Wang et al) (2022-03-10). Worldwide estimates, including estimates from India using CRS data from twelve states.
PLoS One (Guilmoto) (2022-02-16). Estimates based on mortality data from Kerala, from Indian Railways, on MLAs and school teachers in Karnataka
Paper in Science (Jha, Deshmukh, et al) (2022-01-06). Excess mortality in India from June 2020 to June 2021 during the COVID pandemic: death registration, health facility deaths, and survey data
preprint on medrxiv (Banaji and Gupta) (2021-10-01). National estimates of excess mortallity based on civil registration data from twelve states.
Technical report (Banaji and Gupta) (2021-08-30). National estimates of excess mortallity based on civil registration data from twelve states.
Technical report (Banaji and Gupta) (last updated: 2022-06-14). Background material on death registration, and possible underestimation of baseline mortality, relevant to understanding civil registration data
Working paper (Anand, Sandefur and Subramanian) (2021-07-20). Estimates of excess mortality based on civil registration data, survey data from the CPHS, and epidemiological considerations
Paper in Am J Trop Med Hyg. (Leffler et al.) (2022-04-04). [CRS data]. Estimates of excess mortality based on civil registration data
Technical report (Banaji, Kumarappan and Gupta) (2021-06-09). A compilation of reports of suspected COVID-19 deaths across villages in UP, MP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Rajasthan and Haryana during the first three weeks of May 21.

COVID-19:
Cases and recorded deaths (from covid19india.org and covid19bharat.org):
All time:


Recent:


Expected COVID-19 IFR (O'Driscoll et al, Levin et al): 0.2449%, 0.4105%.

COVID-19 seroprevalence surveys and analysis :
1. First national serosurvey.

• Description: Paper in IJMR and detailed review
• Dates: May 11 to June 4 2020
• Headline: 0.73%
• Links: IJMR (technical), Review (technical)

2. Second national serosurvey.

• Description:
• Dates: Aug 18 to Sept 20 2020
• Headline: 6.6% (weighted and adjusted), 10.8% unweighted
• Links: Lancet Global Health (technical)

3. Third national serosurvey.

• Description: Paper in Int J Infect Dis
• Dates: Dec 18, 2020 to Jan 6, 2021
• Headline: 24.1% (weighted and corrected)
• Links: Int J Infect Dis (technical), The Wire (news)

4. Fourth national serosurvey.

• Description:
• Dates: June 14 to July 6, 2021
• Headline: 67.6% (62.2% in unvaccinated individuals)
• Links: Indian Express (news), PIB short video (technical), Lok Sabha Questions (technical)

5. CSIR serosurvey.

• Description: Survey of CSIR employees (not representative sampling)
• Dates: August-September, 2020
• Headline: 10.14%
• Links: elife (technical)